Football is back! And before tonight's big kickoff here is how I see the 2012 NFL season playing out..............
AFC
East
14-2 New England
10-6 Buffalo
6-10 New York Jets
5-11 Miami
.........NE is far and away the best team in this division. The bills will get out of the cellar and get 10 wins as they have games against St.Louis, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Arizona, Kansas City, and Cleveland. They will upset jets week 1 and the last game won't matter for them. They sweep both the jets and the dolphins. They will steal lose to the bigger teams and have the pats going back to sweeping them because they will lose to the ravens the week before heading to RW stadium. The dolphins and jets take a step back this year.
North
11-5 Baltimore
11-5 Pittsburgh
9-7 Cincinatti
2-14 Cleveland
........Once again the steelers and ravens tie for first place and for the second straight year ravens win it but this time on the common game record. Ravens will go 6-4 against steelers in that department. Every three years the steelers have missed the playoffs and there is that possibility week 16 where the bengals could upset Pittsburgh on the road as they did in 2009 en route to a division title.The possibility is there but I'll take the safer route and say they split series. Browns are looking at first pick and will be battling for that spot after this season.
South
11-5 Houston
10-6 Tennessee
5-11 Indianapolis
2-14 Jacksonville
...........Houston will once again hold off the titans for the division. However its not close as the texans will hold a two game lead before the last week and rest their starters against the colts. Texans will beat the ravens in week 7 for the first time and that will decide the second first round bye. Titans start off slow at 1-3, then after a 2-4 start they will go on a six game run and pull off one home upset against Chicago in that span. They lose at Lucas Oil and Lambeau Field the remaining games. Colts improve but only win five home games while the jaguars will be one of the worst in the league this year due to the schedule against some tough defenses at home. They will get a surprise first win............Detroit week 9 and win against the colts week 10. Those will be their only wins on the year.
West
10-6 Denver
10-6 San Diego
7-9 Kansas City
5-11 Oakland
..............Every year Brady's and Manning's teams face off. With AFC West not on the pats schedule next year, the broncos would have to finish first but they will get a scare from SD. At the start SD leads by week 2, then Denver week 6 when they win head to head, SD week 11 when they even the series, then week 14 Denver ties it up and will just need to win out to take the common games tiebreaker. Chiefs will not get off to a good start and I expect them to begin the season 0-3 with the possibility of pulling off a upset against the saints(a team that can play down to competition). But by week 12 they will go on a five game run until they run into the broncos who will need to win to clinch the west. The raiders should be competitive in most games but this is not their year as they will regress.
Key games
Week 7-Ravens@Texans
Week 16-Bengals@Steelers
Week 16-Bills@Dolphins
Week 16-Chargers@Jets
Week 17-Chiefs@Broncos
Playoff Picture
New England*
Houston*
Baltimore
Denver
Pittsburgh
San Diego
Prediction........The pats go back-to-back as AFC winners. And they will host either the ravens or steelers in the title game.
NFC
East
12-4 New York Giants
10-6 Dallas
9-7 Philadelphia
6-10 Washington
.....................The giants will run into a roadblock on a short week week 3 against Carolina and it will fuel them to bounce back off of extra rest to knock off the eagles in Philadelphia for the second straight year, but this time the last game will come down to the giants winning to clinch a first round bye and they will sweep the eagles this year. This will affect the eagles as they will finish third with a 3-3 division record with losses to Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, and, even though a different defense, Tampa Bay will come back to haunt Vick. The cowboys are a team people don't give enough credit to but they will surpise people after their big Monday Night win week 15 against Pittsburgh in Jerry World. The redskins, fittingly, finish 6-10.
North
10-6 Chicago
10-6 Green Bay
7-9 Detroit
6-10 Minnesota
......................I don't think the lions will stay ahead of the bears two years straight. Chicago has an easy start and takes a big win week 4. There is a big concern with traveling as bears have had this problem in the past and their back to back road meetings in Dallas and Jacksonville will tell a lot more about this team with an improved offense. They will go back to sweeping the lions with the last game the lions being behind by two games and this gives the bears a 5-1 division record. Packers will go 4-2 as they will lose in Detroit week 11, giving Chicago the division tie-breaker. I believe the lions will regress this year as I see a 2-4 start and a tested road game in Jacksonville in which the jaguars will be looking for their first win. Vikings with a bit easier of a schedule will improve to 6-10 but they could pull out a division win at home. They should beat the colts, jaguars, cardinals, bucs, rams and a surpising win against either the 49ers or seahawks.
South
11-5 New Orleans
9-7 Atlanta
7-9 Carolina
7-9 Tampa Bay
....................The NFC South has never had a repeat champ but the saints are the team that best excells against tough competition compared to the other three, Until Atlanta can show they can win on the road, I'm not picking them to win in Philadelphia and San Diego. They will also lose to TB on the road but win in NO, Was, Car, KC, and Detroit. Their tough games are at home as they will lose to the giants, panthers who get off to early hot start, cowboys, and saints(even on three days rest). They win a surprise primetime game against Denver as it will still be early for Manning in road games but the broncos very well could win that game. But Atlanta has got to take one at some point. I don't believe the panthers get swept three years in a row and since the panthers will be three or four games worse week 14 when they host the falcons, I have them instead winning in Atlanta. Still the panthers face a tougher schedule and will pull out two upset wins against the giants and chargers. They will tie with the bucs at 7-9 with the panthers taking the tiebreaker. The saints have showed many times they can win big games. They are not afraid of the packers or cowboys and believe they can go and win those games on the road given one is an September game and the other is in a dome and a short travel from the Mercedes-Bens Superdome. They can win a lot of those other games. They face two trap games, both at home, weeks 1 against the redskins and 3 against the chiefs. Their big losses will be to the giants and broncos both on the road.
West
10-6 San Francisco
9-7 Seattle
2-14 St.louis
2-14 Arizona
..............Thanks to Pete Carroll's unwise decision to start Russell Wilson over Matt Flynn, the seahawks now have a disadvantage for first place. I believe Matt Flynn was good enough to give them 1 or 2 more wins than Russell Wilson. But 9-7 will not be enough to even get in for Seattle. San Francisco will have this division led all season as they lose three games down the stretch to New Orleans, New England, and Seattle. That last game will pull the hawks within 1 game but with the cardinals at home the last game of season, the 49ers should win to hold on. The rams, though they have a possibility to improve, will do so in the wrong year as they face tough games early on and throughout the season. Last place schedule doesnt matter as they have the vikings, bucs, and bills all late. They could pull off a win against Washington but only if the redskins win in a upset the prior week against the saints. They will sweep the cardinals for their only two wins on the year.
Key Games
Week 4-Saints@Packers
Week 4-Giants@Eagles
Week 9-Cowboys@Falcons
Week 9-Eagles@Saints
Week 13-Saints@Falcons
Week 13-Saints@Giants
Week 15-Packers@Bears
Week 17-Eagles@Giants
Playoff Picture
New York Giants
New Orleans
San Francisco
Chicago
Dallas
Green Bay
Prediction...........It will be between the cowboys and saints in the NFC Championship game and at this time, I am actually undecided as the cowboys will lose in the regular season at home and will likely readjust to give the saints a harder time four weeks later. With the Saints at home, they have what it takes to reverse a eight year trend where teams rematching in the postseason playing on the other teams home field have not gone 2-0. The last team to do this were the Philadelphia Eagles who won in Green Bay and won at home against them in the postseason in 03-04.
The winner of that game will determine the super bowl champion. If its Dallas, the patriots will win a fourth ring. If its the saints, I believe Brees has shown he can beat the best of them and will add another legend slaughter to his resume.
Four teams will tie for the number 1 overall pick: Arizona, Jacksonville, Cleveland, and St.Louis. Most likely it will be Arizona based on my predictions.
